Jordan and Egypt are both important states in the Middle East, and they have been Israel’s historic peace partners from the 1980s to 1990s.
This means that these two countries share certain qualities that are of great importance to Israel and the wider region.
Egypt, the most populous country in the region, is a historic center of military power and culture.
Jordan, by contrast, is less populated and is a relatively modern country straddling the expanse of desert between Israel, the Gulf, and Syria.
The Kingdom of Jordan enters 2025 with concerns about the outcome of the changes in Syria.
The Kingdom had worked to reconcile with the Assad regime over the last several years. Jordan has hosted hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees. Many Syrians who fled southern Syria have clan or tribal ties in northern Jordan, so their appearance in Jordan did not change Jordan’s demographics. However, it is a burden for Jordan, which is a relatively poor country compared to countries in the Gulf.
Jordan is a historic monarchy that grew out of the British mandate era. The monarchy has to balance the interests of former bedouin tribes, with the townspeople of northern Jordan and the Palestinians who fled to Jordan in 1948.
Jordan views itself as having unique rights in Jerusalem, and even though it gave up its claims to the West Bank, it has a keen interest in the Palestinians. It has been concerned about the outcome of the October 7 massacre and how that might propel Hamas to power in the West Bank.
Jordan is also concerned about being used as a conduit for Iranian weapons smuggling via Iraq. The Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah group in Iraq attacked US forces in Jordan in January 2024, killing three Americans. Jordan is aware that it is sandwiched between Iran’s interests in Iraq, Israel, the Palestinians, the Gulf, and Syria. Thus, it knows it must balance all these countries around itself. The Kingdom is likely concerned that the Syrian shift in power to a new government could lead to troubles at home. What if Jordanians get the idea that they could have similar changes in Amman?
Jordan thus has to navigate the new regional order. It has to hope Iran and Iranian-backed militias stop trying to threaten Israel via Jordan or via Jordan’s airspace. It also must wonder if the new Syrian government might become closer to Saudi Arabia, which would be a welcome decision for Amman, or if it will orient itself toward Turkey and Doha, and thus possibly lead to troubles in the Kingdom.
Egypt’s concern
Egypt is also concerned about the outcome of the Syrian regime’s fall. The Assad regime had long sought partnership with Egypt after the Arab spring led to changes in the region.
The Mubarak government in Egypt fell during the Arab spring and was replaced for a short time by a Muslim Brotherhood government of Mohammed Morsi. Morsi was overthrown by popular protests and the army in 2013.
Abdel Fatah al-Sisi came to power. Morsi was imprisoned and died. Sisi has steered Egypt into the new Middle East. However, Egypt has had to straddle several different conflicts. It has backed the eastern Libya group left by Khalifa Haftar, while Ankara and Doha backed groups in western Libya. Egypt has grown closer to Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean. It has also had to watch Sudan fall into civil war. It appears that in Gaza, it chose to ignore Hamas threats that were growing toward Israel.
As such Egypt did not get wind of October 7 or warn Israel. Since then, it has been more concerned about Israel going into Rafah and taking control of the Philadelphi border area than it has with condemning the October 7 massacre. This is a concern because stability and peace require Egypt to be an honest broker.
If Egypt turned the other way as Hamas plotted in exchange for some kind of relaxation of Doha and Ankara’s rhetoric regarding the former Morsi regime, then this is concerning. Clearly, Doha and Ankara back Hamas and Egypt once opposed the Brotherhood, which Hamas has links with. The concern is what may have changed in Egypt.
Years ago, the Assad regime’s official Ali Mamluk reached out to Egypt to see if Cairo might be keen on supporting the regime against the rebels. Egypt was concerned the Arab Spring was letting loose chaos in the region, and it considered the Assad regime a potential partner in stability, along with the Gulf. However, Egypt was cautious.
The Assad regime has now fallen, and Cairo is again cautious regarding the new leaders in Damascus. Egypt doesn’t want blowback from Syria ending up in Egypt. As such Egypt and Jordan are both going into 2025 wondering if this year will bring peace and stability, or more changes in the region.
